#AUKUS is much more than a submarine deal
it's a NATO-type alliance and France will be part of it due to geography
Beyond the obvious snub against France and the poor form in the termination of the submarine deal, the AUKUS is, according to the BBC a “historic security pact in the Asia-Pacific, in what's seen as an effort to counter China.” There is reason to believe we are witnessing the advent of a NATO-type alliance against Beijing, and France and the EU will be part of this alliance. Geography cannot be altered and France is a historic presence in the Indo Pacific region.
Historically the links between France and America run deep in the region: Noumea in New Caledonia was a key naval base for US forces during WW2.
The roots of the Australian 180 shift are strategic and France needs to react with precision and Frederic Filloux dug deep into the background of the decision.
Once the dust settles this AUKUS will be part of Biden’s larger strategy of aligning the major democracies, including India, to counter China’s authoritarian rule. This column has covered this grand strategy during the last G7 in the UK.
The Quad (India, Australia, Japan and the US) will surely be linked to the AUKUS, and the European Union, with France as the core partner, will be brought into it as well. It would make no sense to not include the 27 member, 400M strong EU into the alliance of democracies.
The cavalier manner relative to the sidelining of the submarine deal is perhaps a combination of Australia’s mixed signals and the Pentagon’s relative disdain for France’s role in the Indo-Pacific. There are reports that Australian Defense Minister and the Foreign Affairs Minister met with their French counterparts mere weeks ago and told them the submarine deal was 100% ongoing. Contractor Naval Group heard rumours from Australian politicians that something was up but officials assured France everything was proceeding along. To better understand the fury expressed by Le Drian on the loss of the deal a French defense analyst added another element: France’s military industry needs these contracts to better amortize the cost of maintaining its army, navy and air force. France wants to be a global player but that carries significant cost.
This writer’s hunch: this deal with France could very well have been a massive head fake by Australia, whose military was already concerned in 2016 by China's increased presence. France could very well have been used as a stalking horse for Australia to get key US nuclear tech in the end.