The 3 scenarios for Nov-Dec 2020

Election 2020 could echo 1932/1980

Share Perspective and context - 2020 through the lens of history

Trump burst onto the American national scene as a showman/businessman in the 1980s, an incarnation of the “greed is good” Gekko-infused era. His divorces, bankruptcies and reinvention as a brand licensor, reality tv star and then politician have a red thread: his need to cash, always and forever. The man is devoid of any morals and is guided by nothing except the $USD. His son in law Kushner is the same, both would literally sell their children (Trump has in a way) to make a buck. Everything else aside from $ is a sideshow for Trump. 

Based on this axiom, here are 3 scenarios for Nov-Dec 2020:

1- Biden wins in a sweeping 1932/1984 landslide

2- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump contests the win, sending the US into a self-destructive tailspin

3- Biden ekes out a slim victory and Trump huff and puffs but doesn’t contest the win, preferring to hedge his bet on the future

******

Scenario 1: Biden wins on Nov 3 in a sweeping landslide, massive in the mold of 1932 and 1984

In this scenario, Biden wins in such a massive way that the GOP is reduced to a smallish, regional and white grievance party. This will sever its ties with American business, which needs a party able to wield power to serve its interests, domestic and international. A massive, sweeping win for Biden and the Democrats cements one-party rule with D control of the White House, the House and the Senate. The loss is so huge that Trump cannot contest much, there are sporadic “white power” demonstrations. America wakes up from the nightmare it inflicted on itself and the world and a generation’s worth of rebuilding starts.

Likelihood: possible but slim

Why ? Biden’s advantage over Trump has been stable and growing throughout the cycle. Nevertheless America is still 47% in the tank for Trump and a massive sweep is not in the cards just yet.

Scenario 2: Biden wins the popular vote but only manages a slim win in the Electoral College. The nightmare scenario of dueling Presidents starts and the US economy is sent into a tailspin

Biden is able to easily win the popular vote by millions but his victory in the Electoral College is slim enough that Trump doesn’t concede and immediately contests it in state and federal courts. Trump goes so far as proclaiming he’s still President and has no plans to relinquish power. The nightmare scenario in countless tv series becomes reality and America has duelling Presidents, duelling Cabinets and a split country, US armed forces et al. The markets freak out and send the US economy, already hurt by Covid-19, into a lasting and final tailspin.

Likelihood: unlikely for Trump to jeopardize the economy

Why ? For all his bluster and norm breaking, Trump is the weakest President in a long while. His Senate majority saved him during impeachment but he has NEVER set the legislative agenda, he is thought of and considered a useful PEN and that’s all. Likewise, Trump is in the pockets of the carbon barons eg Koch Industries whose goals are permanent tax cuts, permanent business deregulation and a wholesale return to 1855. They have a vested interest in keeping some economic stability and will not sit by long should Trump provoke a sharp market downturn by acting like a would be Caudillo. 

Scenario 3: Biden wins the popular vote and a slim EC victory, Trump huff and puff and threatens lawsuits that never come. He’s too interested in launching the first subscription-based political movement, which will make him a real billionaire, finally.

Trump is ALL about the grift, he’s a snake oil salesman who’s found his marks, the poor and uneducated looking for a way out. His threats of lawsuits over the years generate scorn and ridicule because the few he has launched have backfired on him spectacularly. Biden can win a decisive popular vote but a slim EC majority. Trump will throw a morsel of red meat to the “base” and scream and huff and puff. In the end his plan was always to be a surrogate President for his base, a tv personality commenting the news instead of making decisions. His entire Presidency is Potemkin style governance, all hat, no cattle. 

Likelihood: strong

Why ? Kushner has been making moves since 2016 to launch Trump TV. The takeover of OANN by “friendlies” in the past years spells it out. Donny Deutsch has been saying for months that Trump can make 600M$/year with a $9.99/month subscription to feed his drivel to the “base”. I posit he will go further and launch the first pay per view political rallies.

****

What can YOU do ? VOTE !

Share